000 WTPZ42 KNHC 220845 TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 22 2007 IT HAS BEEN QUITE A CHALLENGE TO LOCATE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVERNIGHT. USING CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS A 0546 UTC TRMM PASS...THE CENTER IS ROUGHLY ESTIMATED NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN ITS ORGANIZATION STAGE...AND LACKS SIGNIFICANT BANDING FEATURES. BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 25 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 11 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT IN A SLOWER MOTION AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ONCE THE RIDGE WEAKENS. THE TIMING...HOWEVER...OF WHEN THIS NORTHWEST TURN WILL OCCUR IS WHERE THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY LIES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWS MOST CLOSELY WITH THE HWRF AND UKMET SOLUTIONS...WHICH TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS. A SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS INDICATES AROUND 20-25 KTS OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY IMPINGING UPON THE CYCLONE...AS A RESULT OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER MEXICO. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD SLOW THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS....AND THEN RELAX SOMEWHAT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY 29C AND...BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST...SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO SUSTAIN THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ANTICIPATES GRADUAL STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS THEN LEVELS OFF. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH BOTH THE SHIPS AND HWRF GUIDANCE...BUT IS ABOVE THE GFDL AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...WHICH TURNS THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD SOONER INTO A HIGHER SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 12.8N 106.0W 25 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 13.2N 107.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 13.6N 108.8W 35 KT 36HR VT 23/1800Z 13.8N 110.1W 40 KT 48HR VT 24/0600Z 14.2N 111.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 25/0600Z 15.5N 112.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 26/0600Z 17.5N 113.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 27/0600Z 20.0N 116.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI