000
WTPZ42 KNHC 220232
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072007
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 21 2007
 
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MANZANILLO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS NOT VERY DEEP
AT THIS TIME BUT THERE ARE SOME CYCLONICALLY CURVED RAINBANDS. 
DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING AND SUGGEST THAT THE
SYSTEM CAN BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. 
 
THERE IS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER MEXICO INDUCING A MODERATE
EASTERLY SHEAR AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS AND A GRADUAL
WEAKENING COULD BEGIN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE SYSTEM JUST FORMED
AND THERE IS NOT A GOOD HISTORY OF THE TRACK. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS
285/12. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE...BUT BECAUSE
THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY AS INDICATED BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS.
CONSIDERING CLIMATOLOGY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS SLOW AS
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. LETS SEE WHEN WE GET THE FIRST
RUN OF THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.   
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0300Z 12.7N 105.2W    25 KT
 12HR VT     22/1200Z 13.5N 107.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     23/0000Z 14.0N 108.6W    35 KT
 36HR VT     23/1200Z 14.3N 109.8W    40 KT
 48HR VT     24/0000Z 14.5N 111.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     25/0000Z 15.5N 112.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     26/0000Z 17.0N 113.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     27/0000Z 19.0N 115.0W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA