000
WTPZ42 KNHC 020250
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022007
800 PM PDT FRI JUN 01 2007
 
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND SSMI AND WINDSAT MICROWAVE
PASSES DEPICT A WELL DEVELOPED BANDING FEATURE EXTENDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. A FEW OVERSHOOTING TOPS
ARE EVIDENT AS WELL APPROXIMATELY 30 NM EAST OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT T3.0 (45 KT)...AND
SO WILL THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
 
BARBARA CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN A PRONOUNCED BREAK IN A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...AND INITIAL MOTION IS
SET AT 065/7. DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN SPLIT AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WITH THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF...GFDL AND NOGAPS...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN LONG ENOUGH TO INFLUENCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
INLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  IF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT MOVE
ONSHORE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...IT WILL LIKELY PARALLEL
THE COAST AS INDICATED BY THE UKMET...GFS...CANADIAN CONSENSUS.
 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE
LANDFALL...HOWEVER...IF BARBARA REMAINS OFFSHORE THE INTENSITY
FORECAST COULD BE LOW.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0300Z 13.9N  93.0W    45 KT
 12HR VT     02/1200Z 14.4N  92.6W    45 KT
 24HR VT     03/0000Z 15.3N  92.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     03/1200Z 16.2N  91.6W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     04/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA