000 WTPZ42 KNHC 012041 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007 200 PM PDT FRI JUN 01 2007 A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE IMAGES THAT ARRIVED JUST AFTER THE RELEASE OF THIS MORNING ADVISORY DETECTED A FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH EXCELLENT BANDING FEATURES. SINCE THEN THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS DEGRADED SLIGHTLY...BUT OVERALL BARBARA LOOKS MUCH BETTER THAN IT DID 24 HOURS AGO. CURRENT DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. IT APPEARS THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS INFLUENCING BARBARA'S CURRENT MOTION AS THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 065/4. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT. THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH WILL NOT PICK UP THE STORM. THEY KEEP THE CYCLONE OFFSHORE AND TURN IT WESTWARD IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS AS RIDGING BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THE ECMWF... NOGAPS...CANADIAN...AND GFDL MODELS TRACK THE LOW LEVEL CENTER INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO OR GUATEMALA WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THESE MODELS KEEP A MID-LEVEL CENTER OFFSHORE WHICH THEY EVENTUALLY TURN WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE ECMF...NOGAPS...AND GFDL. THE NHC TRACK ASSUMES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WILL REACH THE COAST. IF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT MAKE LANDFALL IT MAY VERY WELL TURN BACK WEST AS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND UKMET. BARBARA REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS BRING THE SYSTEM TO 60 KT IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...HOWEVER IT IS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE AS INTERACTION WITH LAND MAY INHIBIT STRENGTHENING LATER IN THE FORECAST. IF BARBARA REMAINS OVER WATER LONGER...THE INTENSITY PREDICTION COULD BE TOO LOW. THE NEW TRACK REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WAS ALSO EXTENDED WESTWARD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 13.4N 94.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 13.8N 93.6W 50 KT 24HR VT 02/1800Z 14.6N 93.3W 55 KT 36HR VT 03/0600Z 15.2N 93.2W 55 KT 48HR VT 03/1800Z 15.8N 93.4W 45 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 04/1800Z 16.5N 93.8W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN