000
WTPZ42 KNHC 010230
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022007
800 PM PDT THU MAY 31 2007
 
THE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIPS NEARBY SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER...IF
IT EXISTS...IS VERY SMALL. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONSISTS OF A
LARGE CLOUD BAND RESEMBLING THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. AT
THIS TIME...THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER IS BASED SOLELY ON
CONTINUITY AND IS BEING PLACED NEAR AN AREA OF STRONG BUT SMALL
CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS DRIFTING EASTWARD OR 090 AT 2 KNOTS...
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BASE OF A TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD AND A HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...
BARBARA...IF IT SURVIVES...SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN GRADUALLY TO THE
NORTH AND THEN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS IS BASICALLY THE
SOLUTION FROM GUIDANCE.

DUE TO THE APPARENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...BARBARA HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KNOT DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED WHEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST TURN
TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO BEGINS.        

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0300Z 12.9N  95.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     01/1200Z 12.9N  94.8W    30 KT
 24HR VT     02/0000Z 13.0N  94.0W    30 KT
 36HR VT     02/1200Z 14.0N  94.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     03/0000Z 15.0N  94.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     04/0000Z 15.5N  95.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     05/0000Z 16.0N  96.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     06/0000Z 16.3N  97.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA