000 WTPZ42 KNHC 300834 TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022007 200 AM PDT WED MAY 30 2007 THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING...WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C IN A CLUSTER SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB...WHILE AMSU-BASED MICROWAVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE RANGED FROM 28 TO 42 KT DURING THE PAST 12 HR. WHILE THE EVIDENCE SHOWS THE DEPRESSION IS CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...IT IS NOT YET UNAMBIGUOUS ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN UPGRADE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY THUS REMAINS 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OVER MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A LARGE MID/UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC WEST OF THE TROUGH. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THAT THE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO A BROAD PARTLY CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY 36 HR...AND WITH A SURFACE LOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 48-72 HR. THE TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS EVOLUTION WITH THE PROVERBIAL SQUASHED SPIDER PATTERN. THE MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW GENERALLY SOUTHWARD MOTION FOR THE FIRST 24-36 HR. AFTER THAT...THE GFDN...GFDL...AND ECMWF MODELS FORECAST A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION TO LANDFALL IN EASTERN MEXICO OR GUATEMALA. THE GFS FORECASTS A NORTHWARD MOTION AND A LANDFALL IN EASTERN MEXICO...WHILE THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND THE BAM MODELS FORECAST A WESTWARD MOTION. THE GULF TROUGH SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 72 HR AND ALLOW RIDGING TO BUILD NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...SO IF THE CYCLONE DOES NOT MAKE LANDFALL BEFORE THEN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... IF THE DEEP-LAYER LOW OVER THE GULF IS STRONG ENOUGH...THE ASSOCIATED WESTERLY FLOW COULD PULL THE CYCLONE INTO EASTERN MEXICO OR CENTRAL AMERICA. THE LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE DEPRESSION IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR... AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THAT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS BOTH MAKE THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE IN 48-60 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY MORE CONSERVATIVE... CALLING FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 HR AND A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KT IN 96 HR. TWO COMPLICATING FACTORS IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST ARE THE SMALL SIZE OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH COULD ALLOW RAPID INTENSITY CHANGES BOTH UP AND DOWN...AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE TO LAND THE SYSTEM WILL GET. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0900Z 14.1N 97.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 30/1800Z 13.9N 97.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 31/0600Z 13.6N 96.8W 40 KT 36HR VT 31/1800Z 13.1N 96.6W 50 KT 48HR VT 01/0600Z 13.0N 96.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 02/0600Z 13.5N 96.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 03/0600Z 14.5N 97.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 04/0600Z 16.0N 99.0W 75 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN