000
WTPZ42 KNHC 300258
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022007
800 PM PDT TUE MAY 29 2007
 
THE DEPRESSION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE GETTING ANY BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS EVENING.  DEEP CONVECTION IS A BIT MORE LIMITED THAN IT WAS A
FEW HOURS AGO...AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 TO 35
KT.  QUIKSCAT PASSED OVER THE DEPRESSION AT ABOUT 0030Z...AND THE
DATA HAVE JUST ARRIVED AS I TYPE.  A CURSORY ANALYSIS OF THE
QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES SUGGESTS THAT THE ADVISORY POSITION AND 30 KT
INTENSITY ARE REASONABLE.  CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION...BUT MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS...
INCLUDING BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL...HAVE BACKED OFF A LITTLE...AND
SO WILL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
THERE ARE NO CLEAR INDICATIONS THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS MOVED AT ALL
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS
STATIONARY. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST A SLOW COMPONENT
OF MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
IMPARTED BY NORTHERLY FLOW FORECAST TO EMANATE FROM MEXICO IN
BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN
UPSTREAM RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. MOST OF
THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS AND NOW THE 18Z GFDL...THEN FORECAST
THE CYCLONE TO EXECUTE A CYCLONIC LOOP INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER MEXICO.
THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINS THE EXCEPTION WITH NO EASTWARD MOTION IN THE
SHORT-TERM...AND A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF
CENTRAL MEXICO LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. SINCE THE FORECAST 500
MB FIELDS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS LOOK VERY SIMILAR... THE
DISAGREEMENTS IN TRACK MIGHT BE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH
OF THE MODEL CYCLONE. THE ECMWF HAS THE DEEPEST VORTEX AMONG THE
GLOBAL MODELS...WHILE THE 18Z GFDL HAS A WEAKER INTENSITY FORECAST
THAN BEFORE TO GO ALONG WITH ITS EASTWARD TRACK SHIFT. GIVEN THAT
SEVERAL MODELS FORECAST A POTENTIALLY WEAKER CYCLONE TO GO FARTHER
EAST...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED TOWARD THOSE SOLUTIONS
BUT IS STILL WEST OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0300Z 14.2N  97.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     30/1200Z 13.8N  97.3W    35 KT
 24HR VT     31/0000Z 13.4N  97.2W    40 KT
 36HR VT     31/1200Z 13.0N  97.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     01/0000Z 13.0N  96.7W    55 KT
 72HR VT     02/0000Z 13.5N  96.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     03/0000Z 14.5N  97.5W    75 KT
120HR VT     04/0000Z 15.5N  99.0W    75 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB