000 WTPZ41 KNHC 050859 TCDEP1 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 PM HST Thu Sep 04 2025 The satellite presentation of Kiko has slowly deteriorated this evening, with the eye remaining mostly obscured by a central dense overcast with cloud top temperatures of -65 to -80C. A timely 05/0313Z WSFM microwave pass was helpful in locating the low-level center of Kiko, with the image also showing hints that an outer eyewall may be forming as part of an eyewall replacement cycle, which is possible considering the favorable environmental conditions the cyclone is traversing at the moment. The most recent conventional satellite images seem to lend credence to this possibility of an eyewall replacement cycle, with an eye beginning to re-develop and a deep convective ring developing around it. The most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 6.0/115 kt and 5.5/102 kt respectively, while the objective AiDT and ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged between 98 and 115 kt through the evening. Based on a blend of these data and accounting for recent satellite trends, the initial intensity has been held at 110 kt for this advisory, with Kiko remaining a strong category 3 hurricane. Kiko is moving due west, or 270 degrees, at 8 kt. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected to begin later tonight or Friday, as the western extent of a subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is eroded by developing upper-level low north of Hawaii. This general west-northwestward motion along with a gradual increase in forward speed is forecast through the weekend and into early next week, as Kiko moves along the southwest periphery of the subtropical ridge to the northeast and toward a westward moving upper-level low to the north and northwest of the Hawaiian Islands. The latest track forecast is slightly south of the previous forecast through day 3 due to a delay in Kiko’s west-northwest turn, then very similar to the previous track on days 4 and 5. The track forecast is closest to the TVCE and EMXI aids and to the south of the HCCA and FSSE consensus. Kiko will remain over warm waters of 27–28C for the next 24 hours, while influenced by light northeasterly vertical wind shear, although the cyclone will remain in a drier than optimal mid-level environment. Despite the dry mid-level airmass Kiko will be moving through, the other factors appear favorable for some slight intensification, provided that the eyewall replacement cycle which is likely ongoing, completes. From 24 hours to 60 hours, Kiko will move over slightly cooler waters of 26 to 27C and into a drier mid-level environment with humidity levels below 50 percent. These less favorable conditions should lead to gradual weakening of the system, despite the continued very light vertical wind shear. Beginning on day 3 and continuing through day 5, the cyclone will be move over cooler water near or slightly below 26C, with west-southwesterly vertical wind shear ramping up steadily to more than 30 kt by day 5, and mid-level moisture will plummet below 40 percent. The increasingly hostile environment should lead to rapid weakening of Kiko as the cyclone approaches the Hawaiian Islands from the east-southeast. The official intensity forecast has been lowered slightly from the previous advisory cycle, but remains on the higher end of the intensity aids through 60 hours, due to the continued potential for Kiko to develop annular characteristics. The intensity forecast then trends closer middle of the intensity consensus envelop by days 3 through 5, with Kiko forecast to be a tropical storm by day 5 as it moves very close to the eastern end of the Hawaiian Island chain. Key Messages: 1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the early to the middle portion of next week. The risk of direct impacts from wind and rainfall is increasing. However, it is too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of these impacts, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 13.9N 136.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 14.2N 137.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 14.7N 139.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 15.3N 141.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 16.0N 143.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 16.8N 145.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 17.7N 147.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 19.7N 151.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 21.4N 155.9W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)