139 
WTPZ41 KNHC 032053
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM HST Wed Sep 03 2025

Kiko has strengthened to a category 4 hurricane with recent 
subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates of 5.5 and 6.0 from 
TAFB and SAB respectively.  The structure has continued to improve 
on satellite imagery with the most recent ADT estimate up to 117 
knots, and a raw data T number even higher of 6.4.  The initial 
intensity was thus set at the higher end of the subjective Dvorak 
estimates at 115 knots.
 
Kiko is moving due west, or 270 degrees, at 8 knots.  The forecast 
track reasoning has changed little for this advisory.  A general 
westward motion is expected to continue during the next couple of 
days, as the cyclone is steered by a building subtropical ridge to 
its north and northwest.  A turn toward the west-northwest is 
forecast by day 3 as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii erodes 
the western portion of the subtropical ridge, with this general 
motion then continuing through day 5.  The track guidance this cycle 
remained in good agreement through day 3.  After that time, the 
along- and cross-track spread does increase but is still in fairly 
good agreement through day 5.  The official track forecast remains 
close to the multi-model consensus aids, near the middle of the 
model envelope of solutions.
 
Kiko will remain over warm water and light vertical wind shear for 
at least the next 3 days.  Kiko's intensity will therefore likely be 
governed by inner-core structural changes.  Kiko is currently in the 
middle of a period of rapid intensification which is expected to 
last for at least another 12 hours. Thereafter, it's possible Kiko 
may undergo an eyewall replacement, though the environment could 
also allow the hurricane to develop annular characteristics. Thus, 
the intensity forecast is on the higher end of the guidance suite, 
not that far off the reliable HCCA consensus aid over the first 72 
hours. After that time, cooler SSTs and an increase in southwesterly 
vertical wind shear should lead to a faster rate of weakening.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/2100Z 13.9N 131.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 14.0N 132.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 14.0N 134.4W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 14.2N 136.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 14.5N 137.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
 60H  06/0600Z 14.9N 139.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 15.6N 141.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 17.1N 145.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  08/1800Z 18.7N 149.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Bann