000
WTPZ41 KNHC 021439
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112025
500 AM HST Tue Sep 02 2025
 
Over the past 6 hours, Kiko's eye has become apparent on nighttime 
visible imagery, and at times it has also showed up in the infrared 
imagery.  The small hurricane is clearly intensifying.  The latest 
subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 77-90 kt, 
while the UW-CIMSS objective estimates have been running in the 
60-74 kt range.  The initial intensity estimate of 75 kt represents 
an average of these estimates.

Kiko continues moving slowly westward, or 270 degrees at 5 kt. The 
main steering feature continues to be the subtropical ridge located 
to the north of Kiko.  A slow westward motion should continue for 
the next couple of days.  A turn toward the west-northwest is 
forecast by days 3 and 4 as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii 
begins to erode the western portion of the subtropical ridge.  There 
remains above normal along-track spread in the model suite, but not 
as much spread as yesterday, and the day 5 positions of the GFS and 
ECMWF are in fairly good agreement.  The official day 5 position is 
relatively close to an average of those models.  Only minor 
adjustments have been made to the official forecast, which lies 
close to the TVCE consensus.

Through the next 48 h, Kiko should remain over sea-surface 
temperatures of 27-28C, with light to moderate easterly wind shear 
of 10-15 kt.  The environmental air is a bit dry and stable, and 
this might prevent rapid intensification.  However, steady 
strengthening still appears likely over the next day or two.  By day 
4, Kiko will reach somewhat cooler water temperatures as it moves 
into a drier environment.  The new NHC forecast shows a slightly 
higher peak intensity of 100 kt, and is near the high end of the 
intensity guidance suite through day 3.  Some weakening is likely in 
4-5 days when Kiko reaches the cooler water and drier air, but the 
official forecast still maintains Kiko at hurricane strength through 
day 5.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 13.8N 128.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 13.8N 129.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 13.8N 130.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 13.8N 131.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 13.9N 132.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  05/0000Z 14.1N 134.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 14.4N 135.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 15.3N 138.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 16.4N 141.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen