000
WTPZ41 KNHC 181435
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212019
900 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019

The deep convection increased this morning near the estimated
location of the low level center, and this increase is most likely
associated with the diurnal maximum. Subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB support winds of 25 knots, which will
be the initial advisory intensity. The NHC forecast shows the system
becoming a remnant low by 24 hours. All of the available intensity
guidance supports this scenario, and the latest forecast is a just
continuation of the previous one.  Since the cyclone has such a
weak tangential wind field, however, it could open into a trough at
any time.

The center has been difficult to track in infrared imagery this
morning, and therefore the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain
280/5 kt. There is no change to the forecast track reasoning. The
mid-level ridge to the cyclone's north will continue to steer it
slowly to the west until dissipation.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 12.3N 105.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 12.4N 106.3W   20 KT  25 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 12.5N 107.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  20/0000Z 12.5N 108.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/1200Z 12.5N 109.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Mello