000
WTPZ41 KNHC 180235
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212019
900 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2019

The depression is barely hanging on as a tropical cyclone.
Satellite images indicate that the depression still has a closed
circulation and patches of deep convection mainly on its north
side.  The initial intensity remains 25 kt for this advisory based
on T1.5/25 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.  The GFS
and ECMWF models suggest that the depression could continue to
produce a modest amount of deep convection on Monday before it moves
into an environment of increasing southwesterly wind shear.  The NHC
forecast shows the cyclone becoming a remnant low by 24 hours, but
it could reach this status sooner given how weak the system is.  All
of the global models shows the cyclone degenerating into a trough by
day 3, and the NHC forecast follows that scenario.

The center of the depression appears to have reformed a little to
the north of what we have been tracking.  A long-term motion of
the system is 300/9 kt.  A low- to mid-level ridge situated to the
northeast of the depression should steer it west-northwestward at a
slower pace until it dissipates in a few days.  The NHC track
forecast has been adjusted to the north of the previous one mostly
due to the initial position being farther north than expected.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 11.9N 104.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 12.1N 105.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 12.3N 106.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  19/1200Z 12.5N 107.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/0000Z 12.8N 109.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi