000
WTPZ41 KNHC 170839
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212019
300 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2019

The depression remains poorly organized this morning as intrusions
of dry air have caused the area of thunderstorms that was previously
near the estimated center to dissipate.  New clusters of convection
have recently developed but they lack organization.  A couple of
ASCAT passes suggest that the overall circulation is less defined
than it was 24 hours ago, however, the passes missed the estimated
center making it difficult to determine whether a well-defined
center still exists.  Given the current overall lack of
organization, the initial intensity has been reduced to 25 kt.

Although the vertical wind shear is forecast to remain low over the
system, continued intrusions of dry air associated with a Gulf of
Tehuantepec gap wind event are likely to prevent significant
re-organization of the deep convection, and strengthening is not
anticipated.  The NHC forecast again calls for no change in wind
speed, however, the system could dissipate or become a remnant low
much sooner than indicated below.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt.  There
has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. A mid-level
ridge to the north of the system should continue to steer the
depression or its remnants west-northwestward until dissipation
occurs.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 10.0N 102.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 10.3N 103.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  18/0600Z 10.6N 104.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  18/1800Z 10.9N 105.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/0600Z 11.2N 106.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown