000
WTPZ41 KNHC 170231
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212019
900 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019

The depression has changed little during the last several hours.
The cyclone remains weak with its deep convection confined to a
small area near the estimated center.  The initial intensity
remains 30 kt for this advisory, which is in agreement with the
latest Dvorak classification from TAFB and automated values from
CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.

The intensity models are unanimous in showing the depression either
holding its strength or weakening during the next couple of days.
Although the environmental wind shear is not anticipated to be
strong, intrusions of dry air, in part associated with stable air
moving through the Gulf of Tehuantepec, should prevent the cyclone
from intensifying.  The NHC forecast continues to show dissipation
by day 3, following the global model guidance, but it would not be
surprising if it dissipated or became a remnant low sooner than
that.

Satellite fixes suggest that the depression is moving westward at
about 12 kt steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its northeast.
A slower west-northwest motion is expected during the next few days
until the cyclone dissipates.  The NHC track forecast is adjusted a
little to the north of the previous one, trending toward the latest
consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z  9.8N 102.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 10.1N 103.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 10.5N 104.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 10.8N 105.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 11.2N 106.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi