000
WTPZ41 KNHC 301459
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162019
900 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019

Recent microwave data and surface observations from Mexico indicate
that the center of Narda is located just offshore of the west coast
of mainland Mexico, north of Islas Marias.  The cyclone continues
to produce a large area of deep convection near and to the west of
its center.  The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB
and SAB support tropical storm strength, so the initial intensity
has been raised to 35 kt, making Narda a tropical storm once again.
An automated observing site near San Blas, Mexico recently reported
a wind gust to 38 kt, and a pressure of 1002.8 mb was observed at
Islas Marias earlier this morning. Some additional strengthening is
possible today while Narda moves over the warm waters of the Gulf
of California, however, interaction with land is likely to occur by
Tuesday, and gradual weakening should begin by that time. If the
center moves to the right of the NHC track forecast, landfall and
weakening would occur much sooner.

Narda is moving northwestward at 13 kt. The tropical storm should
continue to move northwestward around the southwestern periphery of
a large mid-level anticyclone centered over the southeastern United
States. Although the various global model ensemble means take Narda
farther westward over the Gulf of California during the next couple
of days, the operational ECMWF and UKMET models show the cyclone
moving inland over mainland Mexico within the next day or so.  This
is the solution that the NHC track forecast leans toward, and it is
possible that Narda will move onshore farther south than implied by
the exact forecast track.

The main threat posed by Narda continues to be very heavy rainfall,
due to large amounts of moisture being advected northward and
northeastward over Mexico on the eastern side of the cyclone's
circulation.  These rains, which could total as much as 15 inches in
a few locations, will result in life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 22.5N 106.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 24.0N 107.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 25.7N 109.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  02/0000Z 27.2N 110.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  02/1200Z 28.4N 111.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown