000
WTPZ41 KNHC 290242
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162019
1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

Late afternoon visible satellite imagery and ship observations
show that the disturbance's circulation has become better defined.
In addition, there has been an increase in convective banding around
the western portion of the system.  As a result, the system is
being classified as a tropical storm.  The initial wind speed is
maintained at 35 kt, which is in agreement with earlier
scatterometer data, and the latest TAFB Dvorak classification.

Narda is located within an area of moderate northeasterly
shear and is likely to interact with the mountainous terrain of
southern Mexico on Sunday.  As a result, only slight strengthening
is indicated within the next 24 hours, followed by some weakening
as the system moves near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico.
The latter portion of the intensity forecast is quite uncertain.
If the system tracks to the right of the official forecast it would
likely weaken and dissipate over southern Mexico, but if it remains
farther west or just offshore, it could be stronger than indicated
below.

The tropical storm is moving northwestward at about 8 kt.  A strong
deep-layer ridge over the southeastern United States should
continue to steer the disturbance northwestward during the next
couple of days.  The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF both take
the system inland within the next 24 hours, however the ensemble
means favor a track near, but just offshore of the coast.  The NHC
forecast is similar to the previous advisory, but the confidence
after 36-48 hours is quite low due to the potential land
interaction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 15.4N 100.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 16.7N 101.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 18.3N 103.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 20.3N 105.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 22.2N 107.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  02/0000Z 24.9N 109.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  03/0000Z 25.5N 109.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  04/0000Z 26.5N 110.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown