000
WTPZ41 KNHC 282041
TCDEP1

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162019
400 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

The large area of disturbed weather along the southwestern coast of
Mexico has not been able to consolidate yet and still there is
no evidence of a well-defined center.  Satellite animation continue
to suggest that a circulation could be forming just south of
Acapulco, but it is still elongated. Latest ASCAT measured
tropical-storm-force winds well south of the possible developing
center.

Since the large envelope of the disturbance is interacting with the
high terrain of southern Mexico, and the environment is not ideal
for strengthening, the NHC forecast calls for a very modest
increase in winds. The disturbance could become a tropical storm at
any time later tonight or Sunday before it reaches the coast.
However, if the system survives the high terrain of the state of
Jalisco, it could gather some additional strength when it emerges in
the Gulf of California and before the shear increases. By the end of
the forecast period, the shear is expected to be high, and a large
portion of the circulation will be overland. This should result in
weakening.

The initial motion continues to be highly uncertain since the
disturbance does not have a center good enough to track. However,
a high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico should continue
to steer the disturbance or the cyclone toward the northwest and
then north-northwest very close or over the southwestern coast of
Mexico, and then into the Gulf of California. This is the solution
provided by the reliable models.

As mentioned this morning, If the system develops its center closer
to the coast, there is a chance that the circulation moves inland
earlier than anticipated resulting in faster weakening. In fact,
this is the solution of this morning's GFS.  Regardless of
development, torrential rains are expected along the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 15.0N 100.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  29/0600Z 16.0N 101.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
 24H  29/1800Z 18.0N 103.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 20.0N 105.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  30/1800Z 22.0N 107.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  01/1800Z 25.0N 109.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  02/1800Z 26.0N 109.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  03/1800Z 27.0N 110.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila