000
WTPZ41 KNHC 070834
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
1100 PM HST Fri Sep 06 2019

Juliette is rapidly declining and is well on its way to becoming
post-tropical. Cloud tops have warmed dramatically over the past few
hours, and satellite intensity estimates have decreased sharply in
turn. ASCAT data that arrived shortly before 06Z revealed that
Juliette is not as strong as previously estimated, with max winds of
only 35-40 kt. Based on that new info, the intensity has been
adjusted down to 40 kt.

The main change in the NHC forecast is that it now shows Juliette
becoming post-tropical in 24 hours. Given current trends, it could
certainly happen much sooner than that. Otherwise, the overall
reasoning behind the forecast is the same. Juliette is located over
quite cold waters and will steadily spin down over the next several
days. The tropical storm has turned westward and should continue
heading west through the middle of next week, steered by low-level
easterly trade winds. This track will take the soon-to-be remnant
low over warmer waters by day 5, and some of the dynamical guidance
suggests that Juliette could try to make a comeback at that time.
However, extremely high wind shear should prevent any convection
that does develop from becoming organized and regeneration is not
expected. The NHC track and intensity forecasts remain very close to
the various consensus aids throughout the 5-day period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 23.8N 127.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 24.0N 128.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 24.0N 131.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  08/1800Z 24.0N 133.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  09/0600Z 23.9N 135.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  10/0600Z 23.7N 139.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  11/0600Z 23.5N 142.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  12/0600Z 24.0N 145.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky