000
WTPZ41 KNHC 070231
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
500 PM HST Fri Sep 06 2019

Juliette continues to slowly weaken. Cloud tops have gradually
warmed since the last advisory and several recent microwave
overpasses show that convection is now limited to the eastern half
of the cyclone. The intensity has been lowered to 55 kt based on the
latest TAFB Dvorak fix.

No substantial changes were made to the NHC track or intensity
forecasts. Juliette is located over 23-24 deg C waters, and will
remain over fairly cool waters for the next several days. Continued
weakening appears inevitable and Juliette is forecast to become a
remnant low within 48 h. Although the system will reach marginally
warmer waters to the west by the end of the forecast period, it will
have weakened enough that significant regeneration is unlikely at
that time.

The initial motion remains west-northwestward at 11 kt. Juliette
should turn westward on Saturday as it weakens further and is
steered entirely by low-level easterly flow. All of the models
forecast that the tropical storm/remnant low will then continue
westward for several days thereafter. The NHC forecast is very close
to the East Pacific multi-model consensus TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 23.7N 126.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 24.1N 127.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 24.2N 129.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 24.1N 132.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 24.0N 134.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  10/0000Z 23.9N 138.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  11/0000Z 24.0N 142.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  12/0000Z 24.0N 145.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky