000
WTPZ41 KNHC 060249
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
800 PM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019

Juliette has remained resilient despite moving over SSTs around
25-26C over the past several hours. Deep convection continues to
envelop the center with a ragged eye apparent in both visible and
infrared satellite imagery. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates
from both TAFB and SAB suggest that the initial intensity remains at
75 kt. The cyclone will be moving over cooler waters of 24-25C
tonight and tomorrow, and will remain over these water temperatures
for the next several days. This should cause Juliette to slowly
weaken. After 48 hours, southwesterly shear is expected to begin to
impact Juliette's circulation. The combination of the cooler waters
and shear should cause Juliette to become a post-tropical remnant
low by 72 hours. The official forecast is very similar to the
previous one, and near the various intensity consensus aids.

Juliette's initial motion is 305/10 kt. A turn to the west-northwest
is expected on Friday as the cyclone is steered by a subtropical
ridge to its north. As the cyclone weakens and becomes steered by
the low-level flow, a turn to the west is expected. The only
notable change to the new official forecast track was a slight
increase in forward speed beyond 48 hours, as the consensus aids
have come into a little better agreement on a faster forward motion
during that time period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 21.8N 121.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 22.6N 123.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 23.3N 125.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 23.7N 127.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 23.7N 129.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 23.5N 133.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  10/0000Z 23.3N 136.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/0000Z 23.6N 139.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto