000
WTPZ41 KNHC 042038
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
200 PM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019

Juliette continues to exhibit a large, ragged eye in both visible
and infrared satellite imagery, but there are some breaks in the
convective banding.  Warming of the cloud tops over the southeastern
portion of the circulation has also been observed.  Recent microwave
data show that the low-level eye remains fairly well defined, and
that the center was located a little south of the previous
estimates.  The initial intensity remains 85 kt, which is a blend of
the various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates.
Although the vertical shear is forecast to remain quite low during
the next several days, the hurricane will be moving over decreasing
SSTs and into less favorable thermodynamic conditions.  This should
result in gradual weakening during the next several days, and
Juliette is now forecast to become a remnant low by the end of the
forecast period.

The hurricane is moving west-northwestward or 295/6 kt.  A mid-level
ridge extending from the southwestern United States over the eastern
Pacific should continue to steer Juliette west- northwestward at a
slightly faster forward speed during the next 2 to 3 days.  After
that time, the cyclone is predicted to turn westward as it weakens
and is steered by the easterly trade wind flow.  The farther south
initial position required a slight southward adjustment of the early
portion of the track forecast, but the latter portion remains
similar to the previous official forecast.  The track guidance is
tightly clustered and the NHC forecast is near middle of the
envelope.

The wind radii were adjusted slightly based on recent scatterometer
data.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 19.4N 117.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 20.0N 118.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 21.1N 120.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 22.1N 122.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 23.0N 124.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z 23.6N 128.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  08/1800Z 23.2N 131.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  09/1800Z 22.8N 135.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown