000
WTPZ41 KNHC 040234
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
800 PM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019

A recent AMSR2-GW1 microwave pass showed that Juliette's eyewall had
collapsed in the southwestern quadrant.  Curved banding features in
that portion of the cyclone's cloud pattern have become fragmented
as well. Subsequently, it appears that Juliette is on the decline,
and both subjective and objective T-numbers support this recent
trend.  Based on these data, the initial intensity is lowered to 105
kt for this advisory.  Cooler oceanic sea surface temperatures, an
intruding dry, stable, surrounding environment, and increasing
southwesterly shear should cause the cyclone to gradually weaken
further, and continue through the entire forecast period.

The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 295/6 kt.  A
mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge extending over the northeastern
Pacific from the southwestern United States should steer Juliette
west-northwestward through the next several days.  Toward the end
of the period, a westward motion should commence as Juliette
degenerates into a vertically shallow depression, and ultimately, a
remnant low, and becomes steered by the low-level easterly flow. The
NHC forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory track,
and lies between the NOAA HFIP HCCA and TVCE simple multi-model
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 19.0N 116.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 19.3N 117.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 20.0N 118.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 20.8N 120.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 21.6N 122.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 23.1N 126.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 23.5N 130.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  09/0000Z 23.5N 134.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts