000
WTPZ41 KNHC 032036
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
200 PM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019

Juliette has leveled off in intensity this afternoon with the eye
becoming cloud filled, and the eyewall convection weakening in the
northeastern quadrant.  The initial wind speed remains 110 kt for
this advisory, and it is probable Juliette is about to go on a
downhill trend.  This is supported by gradually cooling waters
during the next few days along with the hurricane becoming more
embedded in the dry mid-level environment of the eastern Pacific
north of 20N.  Models remain in very good agreement, so the latest
NHC intensity prediction is basically an update of the previous one
and is within 5 kt of the intensity consensus at all times.

The initial motion has turned a little more to the left and slowed,
now 295/6 kt.  There's been no change to the synoptic pattern with
a large ridge over the southwestern United States providing a
seemingly reliable steering current during the next several days,
gradually bending the hurricane westward with time and speeding it
up due to the ridge building to the north.  The only minor change to
report is a small westward trend noted in the bulk of the models,
similar to the previous advisory. Thus the new forecast is adjusted
in that direction, close to the eastern Pacific model consensus
TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 18.6N 115.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 19.0N 116.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 19.6N 117.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 20.3N 119.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 21.1N 121.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 22.6N 125.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 23.5N 129.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  08/1800Z 23.5N 132.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake