000
WTPZ41 KNHC 031448
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
800 AM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019

Satellite images show that Juliette continues to rapidly intensify,
with a distinct eye becoming apparent in addition to a more
symmetric cloud pattern.  The center of the eye moved just southwest
of Clarion Island a few hours ago, bringing 89-kt sustained winds
and a wind gust to 113 kt according to data from the Mexican Navy.
A blend of the subjective and objective satellite estimates gives an
initial wind speed of 110 kt for this advisory.  Some further
strengthening is possible today before Juliette moves over marginal
waters, with continued weakening likely afterward through the end
of the forecast period due to cooling sea-surface temperatures.
Intensity guidance has come into good agreement since the past
advisory, and no significant changes were required to the last NHC
forecast.

The initial motion estimate is 305/7 kt.  A large ridge over the
southwestern United States should provide a steady steering current
during the next several days, gradually bending the hurricane
westward with time.  Model guidance is tightly clustered, with only
minor long-range differences in how sharply the cyclone turns
westward.  The new NHC track prediction is very close to the
previous one through 72 h.  There's been a subtle westward model
shift at days 4 and 5, so the NHC forecast follows that trend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 18.4N 115.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 18.8N 116.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 19.3N 117.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 19.9N 118.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 20.6N 120.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 22.2N 124.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 23.2N 129.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 23.5N 132.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake