000
WTPZ41 KNHC 021441
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
900 AM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019

Juliette is nearing hurricane strength. An increase in deep
convection that was noted with the previous advisory has persisted,
and recent microwave data shows that the cyclone has developed a
well-defined inner-core. Given the observed increase in Juliette's
organization, the initial intensity has been increased to 60 kt,
which is supported by the latest UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON fixes.

Juliette is forecast to quickly strengthen today, and rapid
intensification is a real possibility during the next 24 hours or so
given the seemingly favorable environment and the presence of an
low- to mid-level eye in recent microwave data. Beyond 48 h, the
cyclone should begin to weaken as it moves over cooler SSTs and
encounters a drier surrounding environment. The NHC intensity
forecast is near the multi-model consensus from 72 h through the
end of the period, but there is a fair amount of uncertainty as to
how quickly Juliette will weaken since it will be moving along
a sharp SST gradient. A track farther north than the NHC forecast
would likely cause Juliette to weaken faster than anticipated, while
a farther south track could allow it to maintain its strength for
longer.

Very little change was made to the track forecast. A deep-layer
ridge to the northeast of Juliette should keep it on a generally
west-northwestward to northwestward heading for the next 3 or 4 days
days. The track guidance is particularly tightly clustered through
that period and confidence in the forecast is high. The ridge could
amplify by day 5 and cause Juliette to turn westward, as shown most
notably by the ECMWF, though confidence is a little lower at that
time. The NHC forecast is very near TVCE and HCCA at all times and
lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 16.7N 112.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 17.6N 114.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 18.4N 115.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 18.9N 116.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 19.4N 118.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 20.6N 121.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 22.5N 126.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 23.5N 130.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky