000
WTPZ41 KNHC 011441
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112019
900 AM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019

Juliette has been quickly organizing this morning.  Satellite and
microwave data indicate that a small central dense overcast has
formed, with a large band on the east side.  The current wind
speed is set to 50 kt, in line with the recent CIMSS objective
Dvorak estimate since the subjective estimates are still catching
up with this storm.

There's been a significant change to the intensity and size
forecasts of Juliette this morning, with guidance now showing a
stronger and larger hurricane in about a day.  This is consistent
with the recent development of the early stages of an inner core,
which would allow Juliette to continue to intensify at a fast pace.
Indeed, rapid intensification is a distinct possibility due to an
environment of low shear and very warm water, and the various rapid
intensification indices are all showing this chance.  Thus the
forecast is raised from the last one, similar to the corrected
consensus guidance, and further upward adjustments might be
required this afternoon.

Fixes show that the storm is moving faster to the northwest this
morning.  A ridge to the northeast of Juliette should steer the
storm on this general path for the next several days, followed by a
slight turn toward the west-northwest at the end. Model guidance is
in fairly good agreement on this scenario, and the new forecast is
basically an update of the previous one, close to the eastern
Pacific model consensus TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 14.3N 108.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 15.3N 110.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 16.5N 112.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 17.4N 114.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 18.1N 115.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 19.2N 118.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 20.5N 121.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 22.5N 125.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake