000
WTPZ41 KNHC 291457
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062019
500 AM HST Mon Jul 29 2019

Conventional IR satellite images suggest that the cloud pattern has
not changed significantly during the past several hours, and in
fact, it appears that it has deteriorated some. However, recent
microwave data reveal the development of an eye, and most likely
this feature will soon become apparent on conventional imagery.
Based on an average of both UW-CIMSS objective and subjective Dvorak
numbers, the initial intensity is kept at 60 kt in this advisory.

The environment is currently favorable for intensification, and
Erick is expected to become a hurricane at any time soon. The most
aggressive intensity models are the corrected consensus HCCA and the
FSU Superensemble FSSE which bring Erick to Cat 3 by 2 days, and so
does the NHC forecast. By the end of the forecast period, when
the cyclone is in the central Pacific region, it should encounter
strong westerly shear and weakening should then begin. The official
forecast does not depart from the previous one.

Erick is moving toward the west or 275 degrees at 15 kt. The
cyclone is currently being steered by the easterly flow around
the subtropical ridge. The ridge is forecast to weaken slightly,
and this pattern should provide a west-northwest motion of the
cyclone.  In addition, there is no evidence of any sharp turn to the
north in any of the track models. The NHC forecast remains unchanged
and is basically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCE and the
corrected consensus HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 12.3N 136.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 13.0N 139.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 13.6N 141.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  31/0000Z 14.3N 144.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  31/1200Z 15.0N 146.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  01/1200Z 16.0N 150.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  02/1200Z 16.8N 155.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  03/1200Z 17.5N 159.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila