000
WTPZ41 KNHC 280233
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062019
500 PM HST Sat Jul 27 2019

An ASCAT-C scatterometer overpass this afternoon showed an area of
35-kt winds over the eastern semicircle of the system's circulation,
which led to upgrading the depression to Tropical Storm Erick in
an update just after the previous official advisory was issued.  The
overall presentation of the cyclone has changed little over the past
several hours, and the latest satellite intensity estimate averages
from TAFB and UW-CIMSS support keeping the system at 35 kt for this
advisory.

The motion of Erick is 280/15 kt, driven by strong mid-level ridging
to the north of the cyclone.  This ridging is forecast to persist to
the north of the Erick, with only slight weakening expected later in
the forecast period.  This will result in a motion just north of
west with a slight decrease in forward speed in a few days.  Model
guidance is in very good agreement on the forecast track of Erick.
The latest guidance runs shifted back northward slightly from their
previous runs, and the latest official forecast was nudged only a
little north to lie essentially in the middle of the tightly
clustered track guidance.

Environmental conditions are favorable for Erick to intensify over
the next 3 to 4 days, with the only current inhibiting factor is
that the system lacks a well-defined inner core.  How fast this
inner core consolidates will be a key factor in the pace of
intensification of Erick in the short term.  Based on expectation
that the inner core will consolidate, the NHC official intensity
forecast has been increased through 96 hours to follow the trends in
the intensity guidance.  It should be noted that some of the more
reliable dynamical guidance is suggesting that Erick could intensify
more than indicated in this favorable environment.  By about 96
hours, Erick should begin to weaken as it is expected to begin
moving into an environment of increasing southwesterly shear, with
SHIPS guidance indicating over 20 kt of shear by day 5.  And, at
this same time dry air surrounding the system may begin to entrain
into the storm's circulation.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 11.9N 126.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 12.2N 129.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 12.6N 131.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 13.1N 134.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 13.7N 137.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  31/0000Z 15.0N 142.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  01/0000Z 16.5N 146.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  02/0000Z 17.0N 151.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto/Beven