000
WTPZ41 KNHC 272031
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062019
1100 AM HST Sat Jul 27 2019

The depression has not changed in organization since earlier this
morning.  GOES-17 visible imagery suggests that the depression's
center is embedded within an elongated northeast-to-southwest
oriented trough, yet the cyclone also has a central area of
convection and some convective banding.  The initial intensity
remains 30 kt based on Dvorak estimates of T2.0 from TAFB and SAB.
It should be noted that just-received ASCAT data suggests the
possibility the system is at tropical storm strength, and if this
is confirmed a Tropical Cyclone Update will be issued before the
next advisory.

A strong mid-level high is centered over the U.S./Mexico border,
with the flow on its southern periphery pushing the depression
quickly westward with a motion of 280/16 kt.  The ridging is not
expected to break down much during the forecast period, thus the
cyclone is expected to maintain a westward or west-northwestward
motion through day 5, with perhaps some slowing of its forward
speed.  The track models are tightly clustered, although most of
them lie south of the previous official forecast.  The new forecast
has therefore been adjusted southward, but it lies along the
northern edge of the guidance envelope.

Vertical shear is expected to be low for at least the next 4 days,
with sea surface temperatures ahead of the cyclone being generally
between 27 and 29 degrees Celsius.  Therefore, strengthening is
anticipated, although the trend could be gradual in the short term
while the cyclone attempts to form a more symmetric circulation.
The updated NHC official intensity forecast lies close to the IVCN
model consensus, bringing the system to tropical storm strength by
tonight and then to hurricane strength on Tuesday.  If the
circulation becomes more well defined sooner, then the cyclone
could strengthen a little more than indicated in the forecast, as
suggested by the HWRF and HCCA models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 11.6N 125.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 11.8N 127.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 12.2N 130.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 12.6N 133.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 13.2N 135.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  30/1800Z 14.3N 140.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  31/1800Z 15.6N 145.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  01/1800Z 16.7N 150.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg/Taylor