000
WTPZ41 KNHC 280232
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Alvin Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012019
800 PM PDT Thu Jun 27 2019
 
Somewhat surprisingly, Alvin has strengthened into a hurricane this
evening.  The diminutive system is exhibiting a rather symmetric
CDO with very deep convection bursting near the center.  Microwave
images show a small eye about 10 n mi in diameter.  Subjective
Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB, along with objective
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS, support a current intensity of
65 kt.  Alvin is not expected to maintain its intensity for very
long.  Within 12 to 24 hours, the cyclone should encounter
significantly stronger southwesterly shear and SSTs below 24 deg C.
These hostile environmental factors should bring about rapid
weakening, as supported by essentially all of the numerical
guidance.  Alvin is expected to degenerate into a remnant low on
Saturday.
 
The hurricane is moving a little to the right and slightly faster
than previous estimates, with an initial motion of about 305/14 kt.
Alvin should continue to move near the western periphery of a
subtropical ridge for the next 48 hours, with the weakening cyclone
gradually turning toward the left and decelerating.  The official
track forecast is very close to the latest corrected dynamical model
consensus.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0300Z 17.4N 115.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 18.7N 117.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 20.1N 119.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 20.9N 120.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 21.5N 121.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch