000
WTPZ41 KNHC 121457
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number  53
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
900 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018

The center of Sergio crossed the central portion of the Baja
California peninsula and is now moving over the Sea of Cortez.
The convection has weakened and is displaced to the north of the
still vigorous low-level circulation. Based on observations from the
automatic stations of the Mexican Navy, the initial intensity is 35
kt. The effect of the high terrain and shear will result in
additional weakening, and Sergio will likely become a tropical
depression this afternoon and dissipate over northwestern Mexico
later today or tonight.

Sergio is moving toward the northeast at 20 kt embedded within
the mid-latitude westerlies. This track should continue until
dissipation in about 12 hours over Northwestern Mexico.

The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues
to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within
mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur,
Sonora, portions of the desert southwest and the U.S. Southern
Plains through the weekend. For more information about this
potential hazard, see products from the Weather Prediction Center
and your local weather forecast office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 27.5N 111.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 29.5N 109.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila