000
WTPZ41 KNHC 120250
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number  51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
800 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Deep convection has been on the wane with Sergio during the past
several hours with a relatively small patch remaining in the
northern semicircle.  Still, the circulation of Sergio is fairly
large and vigorous and will take some time to spin down.  The
initial wind speed is held at 50 kt, on the high side of the
satellite estimates since we haven't had ASCAT data in quite some
time.  Weakening should commence overnight due to cool waters and
increasing shear. Sergio, however, is expected to still be a
tropical storm when it moves over the Baja California peninsula
on Friday. Thereafter, it should weaken faster while it interacts
with the high terrain, then reaching the state of Sonora as a
tropical depression and dissipating soon thereafter.

Sergio continues moving northeastward at 20 kt. Models are very
tightly clustered on this track and speed, staying virtually
unchanged until dissipation by 36 hours or so.  Note that the
36-hour point is merely a place holder for the remnants of the
cyclone.  No significant changes were made to the previous forecast.

The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues
to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within
mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur,
Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and Arkansas through the weekend.
For more information about this potential hazard, see products from
the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather
forecast office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0300Z 24.7N 115.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 26.7N 113.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 24H  13/0000Z 29.6N 109.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  13/1200Z 32.5N 105.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake