000
WTPZ41 KNHC 111439
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number  49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
800 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018

The cloud pattern of Sergio continues to show organization with a
couple of cyclonically curved hooking bands, however the convection
in these bands is weak to moderate.  Dvorak estimates suggest that
the initial intensity still is 55 kt. Sergio is about to move over
cooler waters and the shear is forecast to increase significantly,
so the expected weakening process should begin later today.
Nevertheless, the cyclone should still be a tropical storm when it
moves over the Baja California peninsula, but it should dissipate
once it moves over the high terrain of the Mexican mainland over the
state of Sonora.

Satellite fixes indicate that Sergio is moving toward the northeast
about 17 kt. The storm is embedded within the deep-layer
southwesterly flow associated with a broad mid-latitude trough
located just off the U.S. west coast. This flow pattern will
continue to steer Sergio toward the northeast with an increase in
forward speed. Track models are in excellent agreement and
unanimously bring Sergio over the central portion of the Baja
California peninsula in about 24 hours and so does the official
forecast.

The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues
to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within
mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur,
Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and the Ozarks through the
weekend.  For more information about this potential hazard, see
products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather
forecast office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 22.2N 118.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 24.2N 116.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 27.0N 113.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  13/0000Z 29.5N 109.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila