000
WTPZ41 KNHC 102040
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number  46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
200 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018

The organization of the cloud pattern has remained unchanged during
the day, except that the deep convection has continued to weaken.
Nevertheless, Dvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB still support an
initial intensity of 55 kt. Some fluctuations in intensity are
likely during the next 12 hours while the cyclone is over relatively
warm waters and is embedded in a low shear environment. Since both
of these factors will become unfavorable in about 12 to 24 hours,
the NHC forecast calls for weakening. Sergio, however, is expected
to still be a tropical storm by the time it approaches the Baja
California peninsula. After that time, Sergio will move over
mainland Mexico and weaken much faster.

Sergio is moving toward the northeast or 050 degrees at 12 kt. The
cyclone is embedded within the southwesterly winds associated
with a large mid-latitude trough, and this flow pattern will
continue to steer Sergio toward the northeast with an increase in
forward speed. The forecast track brings the center of a weakened
Sergio over the central portion of the Baja California peninsula in
about a day and half, but winds will reach the coast a little bit
earlier. Track models continue to be in very good agreement, and
consequently the guidance envelope is quite tight. The NHC forecast
remains unchanged and is in the middle of the guidance envelope.

The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues
to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within
mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur,
Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and the Ozarks through the
weekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see
products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather
forecast office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 19.2N 122.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 20.7N 120.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 23.3N 117.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  12/0600Z 26.0N 114.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  12/1800Z 29.0N 111.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 72H  13/1800Z 33.0N 101.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila