000
WTPZ41 KNHC 070852
TCDEP1

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
200 AM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018

Sergio appears to have lost some strength during the past several
hours.  Deep convection has decreased in intensity, and the eye
appears larger and more ragged in recent satellite images.  The
initial intensity is lowered a little to 100 kt, which is near the
upper end of the satellite intensity estimates, and this could be a
little generous.

The hurricane is still moving westward at about 7 kt, and a slow
westward or west-northwestward motion is expected for the next 12
hours.  The steering currents are expected to weaken later today,
and Sergio will likely drift northwestward and northward tonight and
Monday.  After that time, a large trough over the southwestern
United States is expected to cause Sergio to move toward the
northeast with increasing forward speed.  The track models are
tightly clustered, and only small changes were made to the previous
NHC forecast.

The predicted slow motion of the tropical cyclone during the
next couple of days will likely cause ocean upwelling, which could
result in continued slow weakening in the short term.  In the longer
range, the models show Sergio moving into an atmospheric environment
of drier air and stronger shear and over waters cooler than 26 deg
C, which should continue the weakening trend or even accelerate it.
The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one,
and it is in best agreement with the IVCN and HCCA models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 14.6N 126.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 14.7N 127.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 15.0N 127.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 15.7N 127.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 16.5N 127.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  10/0600Z 18.5N 124.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  11/0600Z 22.0N 119.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  12/0600Z 26.6N 114.2W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi