000
WTPZ41 KNHC 042033
TCDEP1

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018
200 PM PDT Thu Oct 04 2018

Sergio remains an impressive hurricane. Although the cloud pattern
is still symmetric and well organized, the eye has become ragged and
cloud filled at times. The current satellite intensity estimates
range from 102 to 127 kt, and the initial intensity is set to 115 kt
based on a blend of these data. The environmental conditions along
Sergio's future path are expected to gradually become less favorable
during the next several days, with decreasing mid-level humidities,
cooler SSTs, and a slight increase in wind shear. In response, all
of the models show a gradual weakening trend through the period, and
the NHC forecast does as well. This forecast lies near the intensity
consensus aids and is largely an update of the previous one.

The hurricane is still moving to the northwest at 8 kt. A gradual
turn to the left, or west, is expected during the next couple of
days as a mid-level ridge builds to the north-northwest of Sergio.
Late this weekend, a decrease in forward speed is expected as the
ridge retreats in response to a large trough over the southwestern
United States. This change in the steering pattern should cause the
cyclone to turn northeastward by the end of the forecast period. The
only notable change in the track forecast is a sharper northward and
northeastward turn at days 4 and 5, to come in better agreement with
the latest consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 15.5N 119.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 15.9N 120.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 16.1N 121.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 15.9N 123.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 15.7N 124.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z 15.7N 126.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  08/1800Z 16.8N 127.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  09/1800Z 18.3N 126.2W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi