016 
WTPZ41 KNHC 031446
TCDEP1

Hurricane Norman Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018
800 AM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018

Satellite images indicate that Norman is weakening.  The eye is no
longer apparent on infrared imagery, and the cloud tops are warming
throughout the central dense overcast.  The initial wind speed is
reduced to 95 kt, which is close to a blend of the Dvorak CI numbers
from TAFB and SAB.  Continued weakening is likely over the next
several days due to a combination of marginal SSTs, light or
moderate shear, and a dry mid-level environment.  The new forecast
is very similar to the previous one, except lower in the short term
to account for the current intensity.

Norman has turned westward and is still moving at about 17 kt.  A
fast westward motion is anticipated over the next few days while a
large subtropical ridge holds firm over the central Pacific Ocean.
However, a weakness in the ridge from 150W-155W should cause Norman
to turn more northwestward after day 3.  Model guidance is showing
considerable spread at long range, with the UKMET and its ensemble
closer to Hawaii, while almost all of the other guidance is much
farther northeast.  There continues to be a westward shift in the
guidance, so the official forecast has been shifted westward at
long range.  It should be noted, however, that there isn't much
support for the UKMET solution in the rest of the guidance, so it
seems to be an outlier at this time. Hopefully the NOAA G-IV
aircraft dropsonde data this afternoon will help resolve these model
differences for the 0000 UTC cycle.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 19.3N 136.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 19.7N 139.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 20.0N 142.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 20.2N 144.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 20.3N 146.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 21.3N 150.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 24.0N 152.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 27.5N 154.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake