561 
WTPZ41 KNHC 021438
TCDEP1

Hurricane Norman Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018
800 AM PDT Sun Sep 02 2018

Norman has made a remarkable and surprising come back today.
Satellite images reveal a distinct eye surrounded by a ring of very
deep convection, and Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB reached
T6.0 around 1200 UTC.  These numbers have leveled off since then. On
this basis, the initial intensity has been increased to 115 kt,
making Norman again a Category Four Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Scale.  The hurricane, however, will begin to approach lower SSTs,
and although some of the intensity models are more aggressive in
forecasting strengthening, the NHC forecast prefers the consensus
IVCN, and forecasts a gradual weakening beyond 12 to 24 hours.

Norman is moving toward the west-northwest at 16 kt. There is a
strong subtropical ridge anchored to the north of Norman, and this
flow pattern will continue to steer the hurricane between the
west and west-northwest at the same speed for the next 2 to 3 days.
By then, the ridge is forecast to be weaker and a turn toward the
northwest is expected by the end of the forecast period. Track
guidance is in very good agreement, and unanimously, all models
forecast the gradual turn to the northwest beyond 4 days. The NHC
track forecast is in the middle of the envelope and is not much
different from the earlier one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 17.6N 129.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 18.2N 131.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 19.1N 134.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 20.0N 138.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 20.5N 141.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 21.0N 146.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 22.0N 150.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 24.0N 153.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila