167 
WTPZ41 KNHC 302037
TCDEP1

Hurricane Norman Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018
200 PM PDT Thu Aug 30 2018

Norman is a very impressive hurricane in visible and infrared
satellite imagery. The hurricane's CDO is very symmetric and has a
well-defined 20-nmi-wide eye.  The surrounding ring of cold cloud
tops have warmed slightly, but the various satellite intensity
estimates are still catching up to the improved satellite
presentation and range from 127 kt to 135 kt.  Based on a blend of
these data, the initial intensity is set at 130 kt, and it appears
that Norman's rapid strengthening phase is easing. There is still a
potential for some additional increase in intensity within the next
12 hour or so, however, eyewall replacement probabilities from
UW/CIMSS indicate a very high likelihood of an eyewall replacement
beginning within the next 12-24 hours which will probably lead to
some fluctuations in intensity. Slightly lower sea surface
temperatures and a subtle increase in northeasterly shear are
expected to cause a gradual decrease in wind speed over the weekend.
The NHC intensity forecast shows gradual weakening but it does not
weaken Norman as quickly as the statistical guidance, and it is in
best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model.

Recent satellite fixes indicated that Norman is moving slightly
south of due west.  A strong mid- to upper-level ridge that extends
west-southwestward from the Baja California peninsula should steer
Norman west-southwestward during the next 36 hours.  After that
time, the ridge changes orientation which is expected to cause
Norman to turn back toward the west or west-northwest by early next
week.  The track guidance is once again tightly clustered but the
overall model enveloped has shifted slightly southward.  As a
result, the NHC forecast has been nudged in that direction to be
closer to the various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 17.5N 118.8W  130 KT 150 MPH
 12H  31/0600Z 17.2N 120.0W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  31/1800Z 16.8N 121.5W  130 KT 150 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 16.3N 123.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 16.2N 125.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  02/1800Z 17.1N 129.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  03/1800Z 18.9N 135.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  04/1800Z 20.2N 140.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown