894 
WTPZ41 KNHC 292044
TCDEP1

Hurricane Norman Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018
200 PM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018

Norman's cloud pattern has continued to organize with numerous
convective bands and excellent upper-level outflow.  More
importantly, satellite images show an eye feature which has been
depicted intermittently.  Dvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB have
reached T4.0, and on this basis, Norman is being upgraded to
hurricane status in this advisory.  The environment of low shear and
warm ocean continues to be ideal for intensification, and guidance
continues to be pretty aggressive in bringing the winds up fast.
The NHC forecast indicates rapid intensification, and predicts
Norman to become a major hurricane in about 24 hours.

Norman appears to be moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 8 kt.
The high pressure ridge which is controlling the motion of the
hurricane is expanding westward, and the flow pattern around the
ridge should steer Norman on a west or even west-southwest track
for the next 3 to 4 days.  Track guidance continues to be in
remarkably good agreement, and models are tightly clustered at
least for the next 3 to 4 days. The NHC forecast is very similar to
the previous one, and continue to lie very close to the corrected
consensus HCCA and the multi-model aids. The confidence in the track
forecast is quite high at this time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 17.6N 116.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 17.8N 117.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 17.9N 118.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  31/0600Z 17.5N 120.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  31/1800Z 17.0N 122.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 16.0N 125.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z 16.0N 130.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  03/1800Z 17.5N 135.0W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila