154 
WTPZ41 KNHC 291434
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Norman Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018

The cloud pattern has continued to improved in organization, and
SSMIS data at 1400 UTC indicate that an inner core is beginning to
form. The area of convection is large with a well defined
cyclonically curved band wrapping around the system, while the
upper-level outflow is expanding westward.  Based on objective and
subjective T-numbers, the initial intensity has been set at 55 kt.
The environment of low shear and warm waters is ideal for Norman to
intensify, and in fact, the Rapid Intensification (RI) indices are
quite high. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for Norman to
become a hurricane by tonight and a major hurricane in a day or so.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the
west-northwest or 285 degrees at 9 kt. The hurricane is ready to
start moving more westward or even on a west-southwestward track as
the nose of the ridge to the north begins to expand westward and
amplify. Most of the models captured the building of the ridge, and
unanimously forecast the cyclone to move west-southwestward for the
next 2 to 4 days. The confidence is the forecast during the first 3
to 4 days is high since track models are really clustered. The new
NHC forecast is not too different from the previous one, and it lies
between the corrected consensus HCCA and the multimodel aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 17.8N 115.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 17.9N 116.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 18.1N 118.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  31/0000Z 17.9N 119.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  31/1200Z 17.5N 121.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  01/1200Z 16.2N 124.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  02/1200Z 16.0N 129.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  03/1200Z 17.5N 134.0W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila