192 
WTPZ41 KNHC 070233
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018
1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018

GOES-16 visible satellite imagery and a couple of earlier microwave
images indicate that Ileana's cloud pattern has become rather
amorphous during the past several hours, and the distinct low cloud
elements identified earlier today in visible imagery are no longer
evident.  Based on the deteriorating satellite presentation, the
initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt for this advisory, which is
still a little higher than the subjective intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB.

The global and hurricane models are in good agreement with Ileana
dissipating in less than 24 hours, as a result of larger Hurricane
John's upper tropospheric outflow.  The UKMET, however, maintains
Ileana as a shallow tropical cyclone for a little longer...about 36
hours prior to dissipation.  The official intensity forecast sides
with the model majority solution showing the cyclone either
being absorbed by John, or dissipating in about 24 hours, and is
also based on a similar scenario reflected in the LGEM statistical
intensity model output.

The initial motion remains a bit unclear, but still appears to be
northwestward and little faster...305/17 kt.  Ileana is forecast to
move between Hurricane John to the west and a deep-layer ridge
extending over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico until the
cyclone dissipates.  The NHC forecast is again nudged slightly to
the right of the previous advisory and is close to the TVCN model
consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 18.0N 104.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 19.3N 107.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 20.8N 111.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts