557 
WTPZ41 KNHC 061439
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018

Ileana continues to produce very deep convection near its center,
with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C.  Microwave imagery and the
Acapulco radar have shown some eyewall structure, at least at
mid-levels.  Although conventional Dvorak classifications from TAFB
and SAB provided intensity estimates of only 45 kt, the advisory
intensity is kept at 55 kt in better agreement with SATCON estimates
from UW-CIMSS.  Since Ileana will be in a moist, low-shear, and warm
water environment, the system is likely to strengthen into a
hurricane within 12 hours or so, with some additional
intensification through Tuesday morning.  Thereafter, the influence
of the much larger circulation of John to the southwest is expected
to begin having an adverse effect on Ileana.  The system should
begin weakening later on Tuesday, and dissipate or become absorbed
by John on Wednesday. This is the scenario that is depicted by the
ECMWF and GFS global model guidance.

Ileana continues to move briskly toward the northwest or about
310/15 kt.  The tropical cyclone is expected to move between a
mid-level ridge and the circulation of John for the next couple of
days.  The official track forecast is a little to the left of the
previous one but a little north of the latest multi-model consensus.

No changes to the watches and warnings are required at this time.
Although the core of strongest winds is forecast to remain offshore
of the coast of southwestern Mexico, only a slight deviation to the
right of track could bring stronger winds onshore, particularly in
the area where the hurricane watch has been posted.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 16.3N 101.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 17.8N 104.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 19.3N 107.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 20.5N 109.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 21.5N 111.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch