000
WTPZ41 KNHC 011513 CCA
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Emilia Discussion Number  16...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018
800 AM PDT Sun Jul 01 2018

Corrected to add DISSIPATED line at 72H.

Somewhat surprisingly, a small area of convection southwest of the
center of Emilia has persisted overnight, despite SSTs of around 25C
below the cyclone.  Although the depression is located within a
fairly hostile thermodynamic environment, an upper-level trough to
the northwest may be providing enough dynamical support to maintain
the convection, at least for now.  No recent scatterometer data is
available, so the initial intensity has been held at 25 kt based on
the latest Dvorak fixes from TAFB and SAB. The cyclone will still
likely lose all of its convection and become a remnant low later
today or early tomorrow since the upper-level dynamical support
should decrease over the next 12 hours or so and it will be moving
into a progressively drier environment. The various dynamical models
unanimously indicate that Emilia will then steadily spin down before
dissipating sometime between 48 and 72 h.

The initial motion is still 295/10 kt, and as long as Emilia
maintains convection, it will likely remain on this heading.  Once
the system becomes a remnant low, the low-level tradewind flow will
cause it to turn westward until dissipation occurs in a few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 19.3N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 19.9N 124.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 20.6N 126.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  03/0000Z 21.2N 129.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  03/1200Z 21.5N 131.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky