000
WTPZ41 KNHC 300834
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018
200 AM PDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Emilia has sheared apart during the past several hours, with the
low-level center now exposed to the northeast of a diminishing area
of deep convection.  Recent scatterometer data indicate that the
sustained winds have decreased to near 35 kt, and that will be the
initial intensity for this advisory.  Emilia should continue to
weaken as it moves over decreasing sea surface temperatures, and
the system is now expected to decay into a remnant low pressure
ares between 36-48 h.

The initial motion is now 285/8.  The low- to mid-level flow on the
south side of the subtropical ridge should continue to steer Emilia
or its remnants west-northwestward for the next three days or so,
followed by a more westward motion before the remnants dissipate.
The new forecast track is an update of the previous track and lies
near the various consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0900Z 17.0N 118.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 17.4N 120.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 18.1N 122.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 18.9N 123.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 20.0N 125.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  03/0600Z 21.5N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  04/0600Z 22.0N 134.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven