000
WTPZ41 KNHC 300232
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018
800 PM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018

The cloud pattern has become less organized tonight. The center is
even more separated from the main convection than earlier today,
while the low-level circulation is becoming somewhat elongated.
This is a result of a persistent easterly shear and the effect of
cooler waters.  Based on the current pattern and the decrease in the
Dvorak numbers, the initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt in
this advisory. Emilia could still maintain tropical storm status for
a day or so, but given the environmental conditions of shear and
cool waters, the NHC forecast calls for weakening and Emilia could
become a remnant low in 3 days or even sooner.

The initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 290 at 10 kt.
The cyclone should continue to be steered on the same direction
for the next few days by the flow south of a subtropical ridge. The
NHC forecast is very near the HFIP Corrected consensus HCCA which is
in the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0300Z 16.8N 117.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 17.2N 119.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 17.8N 121.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 18.5N 123.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 19.5N 124.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 21.5N 128.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  04/0000Z 22.2N 133.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila