000
WTPZ41 KNHC 292032
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018
200 PM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018

Emilia remains a sheared tropical cyclone, as visible satellite
images show that the center is located near the northeastern edge of
a large mass of deep convection.  The center has become a little
more exposed this afternoon, but Dvorak Data T-numbers are unchanged
from this morning and the initial intensity is kept at 50 kt for
this advisory.  Although the shear is forecast to decrease during
the next 24 hours, the cyclone will be moving over gradually
decreasing SSTs, so little overall change in strength is anticipated
during that time.  By late Saturday, Emilia is forecast to cross the
26 degree isotherm and move into a less favorable thermodynamic
environment, which should initiate weakening.  Dry air and cool
waters should accelerate the spin down and Emilia is forecast to
degenerate into a remnant low in about 72 hours, if not sooner.

The initial motion estimate is 295/9 kt.  Emilia should continue
moving west-northwestward to the south of a low to mid-level ridge.
After weakening, a more westward motion is forecast as the system
comes under the influence of the low-level trade wind flow.  The
track guidance remains in good agreement and the updated official
foreast is near the center of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 16.6N 116.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 17.0N 118.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 17.5N 120.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 18.3N 122.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 19.1N 123.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  02/1800Z 21.0N 127.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  03/1800Z 22.1N 131.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  04/1800Z 22.5N 136.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown