000
WTPZ41 KNHC 290838
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018
200 AM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018

Emilia has changed little in organization since the previous
advisory, with the convection continuing to be displaced to the
west and southwest of the low-level center by 15-20 kt of easterly
vertical wind shear.  The initial intensity remains 45 kt based on
a blend of various satellite intensity estimates.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 300/10.  A low- to
mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of Emilia should steer the
cyclone generally west-northwestward through the forecast period,
and the track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario.
The new forecast track is an update of the previous forecast.

The dynamical model guidance suggests that the shear should
gradually decrease during the next 24-48 h.  However, the sea
surface temperatures along the forecast track decrease during this
time, and it is uncertain if Emilia will be able to take advantage
of the more favorable upper-level winds.  The new forecast follows
the trend of the previous forecast in showing slight strengthening
during this time.  After 48 h, the cyclone is expected to move over
cool enough waters to cause steady weakening, and Emilia is
currently forecast to decay to a remnant low by 96 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 16.0N 115.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 16.5N 116.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 17.2N 118.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 17.8N 120.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  01/0600Z 18.4N 122.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  02/0600Z 20.0N 126.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  03/0600Z 21.5N 129.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  04/0600Z 23.0N 133.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven