000
WTPZ41 KNHC 290232
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018
900 PM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Several microwave images during the day revealed that Emilia
continues to be a sheared cyclone with the center to the east of a
convective mass. However, it appears that during the past hour or
so, the center is a little closer to the edge of the thunderstorm
activity, and Dvorak T-numbers are now indicative of a 45-kt
tropical cyclone. Model guidance is not showing much decrease in the
northeasterly shear for the next 24 to 36 h, and this scenario only
allows for slight strengthening. In addition, by the time the shear
is forecast to decrease, the circulation of Emilia will be affected
by cooler waters. By then, a decay in intensity is anticipated.

Emilia is moving toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at about
10 kt, steered by the flow around a narrow subtropical ridge to the
north of the cyclone.  Most of the global models indicate that the
ridge will persist for the next several days, and the forecast
flow pattern should keep Emilia on the same general track until
dissipation. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one
and follows very closely the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA), which
is in the middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 15.4N 114.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 16.0N 116.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 16.6N 117.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 17.3N 119.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 18.0N 121.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  02/0000Z 19.7N 125.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  03/0000Z 21.5N 129.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  04/0000Z 23.0N 133.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila