000
WTPZ41 KNHC 282031
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018
300 PM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Satellite images indicate that Emilia is better organized than this
morning, with a large banding feature wrapping around the western
semicircle.  There is still a fair amount of northeasterly shear,
however, since the eastern part of the circulation is partially
exposed.  A blend of the Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB gives an
initial wind speed of 40 kt.  Further strengthening is expected over
the next day or so while Emilia experiences decreasing shear over
warm waters.  A gradual decline in intensity should begin over the
weekend due to the storm encountering cooler SSTs and entraining
drier more stable air.  Model guidance is a bit higher with the peak
intensity of Emilia on this cycle, and the official prediction
follows suit, ending up near the corrected consensus models.

The storm continues to move west-northwestward this afternoon.  A
gradual decrease in Emilia's forward speed should occur over the
next few days due to a weakening mid-level ridge to the north.  The
global models are still indicating a break in the subtropical ridge
persisting at long range, which would keep the west-northwestward
motion going throughout the period.  The only change to the track
forecast is a northward adjustment at days 4 and 5 to better match
the poleward-trending models, although the official forecast
remains on the southern side of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 14.9N 113.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 15.5N 115.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 16.2N 117.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 16.9N 118.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 17.5N 120.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  01/1800Z 19.0N 123.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  02/1800Z 21.0N 127.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  03/1800Z 22.5N 131.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake